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Research Article: Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and subsequent renal function decline in older adults with type 2 diabetes

Date Published: 2026-06-23

Abstract:
Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability may capture glycemic instability beyond mean HbA1c. We assessed its association with subsequent renal function decline in older Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes. In a single-center prospective landmark cohort, we enrolled adults with type 2 diabetes who were aged ?65 years. Index diabetes-care encounters were prospectively identified in 2015–2019. HbA1c variability was calculated from at least three HbA1c measurements collected during a fixed 24-month exposure window, and participants were followed from the 24-month landmark. The primary exposure was the HbA1c coefficient of variation (HbA1c-CV). The primary outcome was sustained renal function decline after a landmark, defined as confirmed ?20% eGFR decline, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , or kidney replacement therapy. Multivariable Cox models adjusted for mean HbA1c and baseline covariates. The cohort included 630 participants (mean age 72.9 years; 52.7% men). During a median of 4.6 years of follow-up, 247 primary renal events occurred. Each 5% absolute increase in HbA1c-CV was associated with higher renal decline risk (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.08–1.31; p < 0.001). Compared with the lowest tertile, the highest tertile had a higher risk (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.18–2.11; p = 0.002). Results were directionally consistent in competing-risk and lagged analyses. Greater visit-to-visit HbA1c variability was independently associated with subsequent renal function decline. HbA1c variability may represent a pragmatic prognostic signal; however, incremental predictive value beyond established kidney markers was not tested in this study.

Introduction:
Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability may capture glycemic instability beyond mean HbA1c. We assessed its association with subsequent renal function decline in older Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes.

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