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Research Article: Joint trajectories of objective physical function and cognition and risk of incident dementia: a population-based cohort study

Date Published: 2026-05-22

Abstract:
This study aimed to identify joint longitudinal trajectories of physio-cognitive aging, determine the temporal precedence between physical and cognitive decline, and evaluate both the mediating role of life space constriction and the moderating effect of sensory impairment on incident dementia risk. Using 8-year longitudinal data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), we applied Parallel-Process Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) to identify joint functional trajectories. Stratified Cross-Lagged Panel Models (CLPM) and survey-weighted survival mediation analyses were used to determine directionality and mechanistic pathways. Among 6,175 older adults (representing 35.4 million individuals), we identified four phenotypes, including “Dual Rapid Decliners” (10%) who faced a nearly five-fold increased risk of incident dementia (HR = 4.85). CLPM revealed that physical decline significantly predicted subsequent cognitive decline, while the reverse path was weak and non-significant. This effect was significantly mediated by life space constriction (16.8%) and exacerbated by concurrent vision impairment. Incorporating physical metrics significantly improved exploratory diagnostic modeling (NRI = 0.125). Objective physical decline serves as an early, independent prodromal marker for dementia. Maintaining physical mobility and correcting sensory deficits are vital strategies to preserve cognitive health.

Introduction:
This study aimed to identify joint longitudinal trajectories of physio-cognitive aging, determine the temporal precedence between physical and cognitive decline, and evaluate both the mediating role of life space constriction and the moderating effect of sensory impairment on incident dementia risk.

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