Research Article: Higher admission serum total carbon dioxide is independently associated with early seizure recurrence in children with benign convulsions with mild gastroenteritis
Abstract:
Readily accessible biomarkers for early seizure recurrence in benign convulsions with mild gastroenteritis (CwG) are lacking. We evaluated whether admission serum total carbon dioxide (TCO 2 ), a routine venous surrogate for bicarbonate, predicts seizure recurrence within 48?h in children with CwG.
This retrospective study included children aged 6 months to 6 years diagnosed with CwG (2020–2026). Multivariable logistic regression evaluated the association between admission venous TCO 2 and seizure recurrence within 48?h, adjusting for age and anticonvulsant use. Model performance underwent bootstrap internal validation. TCO 2 /bicarbonate concordance was assessed in a paired subset.
Of 86 children (median age 14.5 months), 23 (26.7%) experienced recurrence. Median TCO 2 was higher in the recurrence group (17.4 vs. 15.1?mmol/L, P =?0.007). In multivariable analysis, higher TCO 2 (odds ratio 1.235, 95% confidence interval 1.053–1.448; P =?0.009) and younger age ( P =?0.016) were independently associated with recurrence. The optimism-corrected area under the curve was 0.710, calibration slope was 0.748, and Brier score was 0.164. A TCO 2 cutoff of 16.25?mmol/L yielded 78.3% sensitivity, 61.9% specificity, and 88.7% negative predictive value. In 29 paired samples, venous TCO 2 and arterial bicarbonate were strongly correlated ( r =?0.966, P <?0.001).
Higher admission serum TCO 2 was independently associated with early seizure recurrence in CwG. As a readily accessible venous biomarker, TCO 2 may represent a candidate marker for bedside risk stratification to guide observation. These findings are hypothesis-generating, and external validation in prospective cohorts is warranted.
Introduction:
Readily accessible biomarkers for early seizure recurrence in benign convulsions with mild gastroenteritis (CwG) are lacking. We evaluated whether admission serum total carbon dioxide (TCO 2 ), a routine venous surrogate for bicarbonate, predicts seizure recurrence within 48?h in children with CwG.
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