Research Article: Development and internal validation of a nomogram for early prediction of hospital-acquired ESKAPE colonization or infection in very preterm infants using indicators available within 24 hours
Abstract:
ESKAPE pathogens are a major cause of hospital-acquired colonization or infection among very preterm infants in neonatal intensive care units ( N ICUs). Early identification of high-risk infants can help prioritize infection-control interventions and guide targeted preventive care.
A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted among 465 very preterm infants (gestational age, GA???32 weeks) admitted to the NICU of a tertiary hospital between January 2015 and June 2025. Infants were randomly divided into training ( n =?325) and internal validation ( n =?140) cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Predictors available within 24?h after birth were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and presented as a nomogram.
Overall, 77 infants (16.56%) developed hospital-acquired ESKAPE colonization or infection, of which 67.5% (52/77) were first identified within 14 days after birth. Among 109 non-duplicate ESKAPE isolates, the predominant pathogens were Acinetobacter baumannii (38/109, 34.86%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (31/109, 28.44%); respiratory specimens were the primary source (90/109, 82.57%). Four predictors were retained in the final model: GA at birth, initial invasive mechanical ventilation, vasoactive exposure within the first 24?h, and 5-minute Apgar score. The nomogram showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.718–0.853) in the training cohort and 0.770 (95% CI: 0.673–0.866) in the internal validation cohort, indicating moderate discrimination. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated good agreement between predicted probabilities and observed risks, with net benefit across a wide range of clinically relevant threshold probabilities. An online prediction tool was also developed ( https://newborn.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ).
We developed and internally validated a nomogram for early prediction of hospital-acquired ESKAPE colonization or infection in very preterm infants using routine clinical indicators obtained within 24?h after birth. The model can support early risk stratification and infection control prioritization in the NICU. External validation and prospective implementation studies are required before routine clinical adoption.
Introduction:
ESKAPE pathogens are a major cause of hospital-acquired colonization or infection among very preterm infants in neonatal intensive care units ( N ICUs). Early identification of high-risk infants can help prioritize infection-control interventions and guide targeted preventive care.
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