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Research Article: Platelet-related parameters at initial diagnosis for predicting the risk of chronicity in children with newly diagnosed immune thrombocytopenia

Date Published: 2026-06-01

Abstract:
To investigate the clinical value of platelet-related parameters and clinical characteristics at initial diagnosis in predicting the risk of progression to chronic disease in children with newly diagnosed immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), and to develop an individualized risk prediction model. This single-center retrospective cohort study consecutively enrolled pediatric patients who were newly diagnosed with primary immune thrombocytopenia at the Department of Pediatrics of our hospital between January 2022 and January 2025. According to disease course and whether the duration exceeded 12 months, patients were categorized into the chronic immune thrombocytopenia (CITP) group ( n =?31) and the non-CITP group ( n =?136). Platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV), and immature platelet fraction (IPF%) were compared between groups. Independent predictors of chronicity were predicted using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A visualized nomogram was constructed based on key predictive factors. Children in the CITP group were significantly older at initial diagnosis. Among platelet-related parameters, the platelet count at diagnosis was significantly lower in the CITP group, whereas mean platelet volume and immature platelet fraction were significantly higher. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that older age, lower platelet count, and higher immature platelet fraction were independent risk factors for progression from newly diagnosed ITP to chronic disease. ROC curve analysis indicated that the combined predictive model incorporating age, platelet count, and immature platelet fraction achieved the best performance, which was significantly superior to any single indicator alone. The nomogram constructed based on these variables showed good calibration, and DCA confirmed a substantial net clinical benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. Age at diagnosis, platelet count, and immature platelet fraction are effective predictors of chronicity in children with ITP. A nomogram integrating these three parameters demonstrates favorable predictive accuracy and potential clinical applicability. Nevertheless, these findings require further validation through multicenter prospective studies.

Introduction:
Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an acquired hemorrhagic disorder in childhood. Its core pathophysiological mechanism involves autoantibody-mediated accelerated platelet destruction, which is frequently accompanied by relatively insufficient platelet production by bone marrow megakaryocytes ( 1 ). Pediatric ITP typically presents with an acute onset, and the majority of affected children achieve spontaneous remission within 6–12 months after diagnosis, resulting in a generally favorable prognosis ( 2 ).…

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