Research Article: Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of deep venous thrombosis after hip replacement in elderly patients with femoral neck fracture
Abstract:
The rising global aging population has led to more femoral neck fractures (FNF) in the elderly, posing a significant public health challenge. FNF patients undergoing hip replacement face a higher risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), which, if untreated, can lead to severe complications like pulmonary embolism. Without preventive measures, the incidence of DVT after major surgery is notably high.
A total of 906 elderly FNF patients who underwent hip arthroplasty between January 2013 and December 2023 were enrolled from the General Hospital of Chinese PLA Central Theater Command. Patients were randomly allocated to a training set ( n =?635, 70%) and a validation set ( n =?271, 30%). The occurrence of DVT in the training set was designated as the outcome variable. Potential predictors were initially screened via univariate analysis and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Subsequently, significant independent variables were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model to identify predictors and construct a nomogram prediction model. This model underwent internal validation using the validation set. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
This retrospective study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the General Hospital of Central Theater Command of PLA ([2024] 074-01) and was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its later amendments. All patient data were retrospectively collected from hospital medical records and anonymized before analysis.
Introduction:
The rising global aging population has led to more femoral neck fractures (FNF) in the elderly, posing a significant public health challenge. FNF patients undergoing hip replacement face a higher risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), which, if untreated, can lead to severe complications like pulmonary embolism. Without preventive measures, the incidence of DVT after major surgery is notably high.
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