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Research Article: Trends and disparities in deaths involving atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and stroke-related conditions among U.S. adults, 1999–2025

Date Published: 2026-07-16

Abstract:
ASCVD and stroke remain leading causes of death in the United States, sharing overlapping risk factors and clinical consequences. Long-term declines in vascular mortality have slowed while disparities persist. We evaluated national trends and disparities in mortality involving coexisting ASCVD- and stroke-related conditions among U.S. adults from 1999 to 2025. We performed a retrospective population-based study using the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death database. Adults aged ?25 years were included. Deaths were identified when prespecified ASCVD-related and stroke-related ICD-10 codes were both documented on the same death certificate, whether as underlying or contributing causes. The outcome represents a death-certificate-defined mortality phenotype rather than clinically adjudicated concurrent disease. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were calculated using the 2000 U.S. standard population. Trends were assessed overall and by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, census region, urbanization, and state. Urbanization analyses were restricted to 1999–2020. Sensitivity analyses included restriction to atherosclerotic-specific codes (I25.x) and exclusion of provisional 2025 data. A total of 876,383 deaths were identified. Overall average AAMR was 15.01 per 100,000. Mortality declined from 26.82 in 1999 to 10.91 per 100,000 in 2025, with an AAPC of ?3.53% (95% CI, ?4.27 to ?2.78; p <?0.001). After sustained declines through 2018, AAMR showed a borderline significant increase during 2018–2021 (APC: 6.06%; 95% CI, 0.01–12.48; p =?0.050), not replicated under stricter cause-of-death definitions, followed by renewed decline from 2021 to 2025 (APC: ?2.85%; 95% CI, ?4.58 to ?1.09; p =?0.004). Mortality burden remained higher among men, older adults, Black individuals, residents of the South, and non-metropolitan populations. Adults aged 25–44 years showed a significant increase after 2015, though absolute rates remain low and this finding warrants cautious interpretation. Although mortality involving coexisting ASCVD- and stroke-related conditions declined substantially from 1999 to 2025, this progress was interrupted by a borderline reversal in the pandemic period and remained marked by persistent disparities. These findings support the need for stronger and more equitable prevention strategies, particularly for younger adults and high-burden populations and regions.

Introduction:
ASCVD and stroke remain leading causes of death in the United States, sharing overlapping risk factors and clinical consequences. Long-term declines in vascular mortality have slowed while disparities persist. We evaluated national trends and disparities in mortality involving coexisting ASCVD- and stroke-related conditions among U.S. adults from 1999 to 2025.

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