Research Article: BMI-stratified nomograms to predict early SIRS-defined sepsis after flexible ureteroscopy
Abstract:
Postoperative sepsis is a serious complication of flexible ureteroscopy (FURS). Body mass index (BMI) may modify risk, but BMI-stratified prediction models are lacking. We developed and internally validated BMI-specific nomograms for early SIRS-defined sepsis after FURS.
This single-center retrospective cohort included 1,254 adults undergoing FURS (2020–2024), stratified by BMI (<25 vs.???25?kg/m 2 ). Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors of SIRS-defined sepsis within 48?h in each stratum. BMI-specific nomograms were constructed and internally validated using 1,000 bootstrap resamples.
SIRS-defined sepsis occurred in 78/1,254 (6.2%): 42/504 (8.3%) with BMI???25 vs. 36/750 (4.8%) with BMI?<?25 ( p =?0.011). In both strata, positive urine culture, staghorn stones, CRP???10?mg/L, and procalcitonin ?0.5?ng/mL were independent risk factors. Operative time ?60?min was significant only in the BMI???25 group, while postoperative albumin ?35?g/L was protective only in the BMI?<?25 group. The BMI???25 nomogram showed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.94, optimism-corrected 0.92), and the BMI?<?25 nomogram performed robustly (AUC 0.90, optimism-corrected 0.88), with good calibration and net benefit.
BMI-stratified nomograms identified shared and BMI-specific risk factors for early SIRS-defined sepsis after FURS. These tools may aid individualized perioperative risk assessment, pending external validation.
Introduction:
Postoperative sepsis is a serious complication of flexible ureteroscopy (FURS). Body mass index (BMI) may modify risk, but BMI-stratified prediction models are lacking. We developed and internally validated BMI-specific nomograms for early SIRS-defined sepsis after FURS.
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