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Research Article: Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for postcontrast acute kidney injury in patients with postoperative acute kidney injury of acute Stanford type A aortic dissection

Date Published: 2026-07-10

Abstract:
To identify independent risk factors for postcontrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) in patients with postoperative AKI (PO-AKI) following acute Stanford type A aortic dissection (ATAAD), and to develop a clinically applicable prediction model. This retrospective cohort study enrolled 604 PO-AKI patients (2014–2024, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital) who underwent ?1 postoperative contrast-enhanced CTA. PC-AKI was diagnosed per 2018 ESUR guidelines (sCr elevation ?26.5 ?mol/L or ?1.5 times baseline within 48–72?h, with baseline defined as the most recent pre-CTA sCr). Three variable-selection strategies (backward stepwise AIC, LASSO and XGBoost-SHAP) were used. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed, internally validated by bootstrap resampling (1,000 repetitions), and evaluated via AUC, calibration curves, Brier score, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve. PC-AKI incidence was 9.8% (59/604), with striking recovery-dependent stratification: 3.5% in fully recovered PO-AKI vs. 52.5% in unrecovered PO-AKI. Independent predictors included PO-AKI stage 3 (OR?=?3.144, 95% CI: 1.41–7.06) and unrecovered PO-AKI before first CTA (OR?=?25.212, 95% CI: 12.57–53.49). The model exhibited good discrimination (AUC=0.848, 95% CI: 0.78–0.91) and calibration (Brier=0.057). PC-AKI was independently associated with prolonged ICU stay (RR?=?1.521, 95% CI: 1.19–1.97) and incomplete renal recovery at discharge (OR?=?2.554, 95% CI: 1.30–4.86), but not with 30-day mortality ( P =?0.606). Dynamic PO-AKI recovery and advanced AKI stage are strongly associated with PC-AKI risk in post-ATAAD patients. The internally validated model may aid individualized risk stratification before contrast procedures in this high-risk subgroup. External validation is needed before clinical deployment.

Introduction:
Postcontrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) is a common iatrogenic complication following contrast media exposure, defined by the 2018 ESUR guidelines as an increase in serum creatinine (sCr) of ?26.5 ?mol/L or ?1.5 times baseline within 48–72?h ( 1 ). This complication poses substantial clinical challenges, particularly in patients with ongoing postoperative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) that has not yet resolved after surgery. Such patients have fragile renal reserve and are undergoing dynamic recovery processes,…

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